TheParlayCafe

Happy Tuesday Café! We’re going to mix it up and be the straight pick café for the next week at least. We fell into being all in on the +100 parlays because the account blew up multiple times around the ladder. But we’re realizing at this point of the year, they’re definitely a little bit more difficult. For example, in the Fall, we’ve got NFL, which is our favorite sport hands down + you’ve got tons of NBA games on every night, typically with over/unders around 220-230. So we have sooo much more to select from. At this point of the year, we’re really just working with 1-2 NBA games with teams playing the best defense they play all year which is why we’re seeing less scoring. The lines are also extremely sharp at this point of the year since there’s so few games. We also looked back and realized that we’ve been getting hooked so much on these multi leg +100s, but if we’d just given every single prop on our main parlays, but with the ACTUAL LINE and as a straight pick, we’d be about 17-13 on the last 30 of them. Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. So we clearly need to shake it up at this point of the year to try something new. We’ll continue mixing in parlays, maybe even some longshots, but we’ll be experimenting with a lot of straight picks as well. Excited for it.

And with that said, onto tonight’s game plan! We’re going to roll with our favorite play from each of the two games tonight as our main picks. But we also know we can’t just totally dive away from parlays as we move back into some straight plays, so we’ll toss one out as the extra play. If we hit both straight picks, we’ll send $50 to different random people in the discord. Here we go ☕️

Pick #1 (Cavs/Celtics): Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers) Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-122)

-39/62 Games This Season (63%)
-BUT, hit it 31/43 (72%) When he plays 35 or more minutes… which we hope to see tonight in a playoff game (played 36+ minutes in 6/7 of Magic series
-Had 14,9 & 15 in last 3 against Celtics. So clearing it comfortably in 2 and landing on the hook in another
-Averaged 11.2 on the season (5.1 Rebounds & 6.1 Assists)
-Looks unlikely we’ll see Jarrett Allen, so we’ll ideally see that giving Mitchell some extra rebounding opportunities
-Goes without saying that Mitchell’s the star of this team and really their main hope to put up any fighting change against a heavily favored Celtics team. We like him to have the ball in his hands a whole lot tonight

Pick #2 (Thunder/Mavericks): Chet Holmgren (Thunder) Over 8.5 Rebounds (-110)

-In four matchups against the Mavs this year, Chet put up 9,8,12 & 11 Rebounds
-In the two games he put up 9 & 12 rebounds, he did it in just 12 & 22 minutes
-This Thunder team in our opinion has a big disadvantage on the boards. Nearly everyone on the Mavs is a solid rebounder and they outside the Thunder. You have Gafford, PJ Washington & Luka. Then Derrick Lively now off the bench. At 7’1, Chet is far and away the best rebounds that the Thunder have. If he doesn’t shop up on the defensive glass, we think the Thunder will have a problem.

Extra Play (Celtics): 5 Legs, -113

Jrue Holiday (Celtics) Over 6.5 Points
Jrue Holiday (Celtics) 1+ Made Three
Jrue Holiday (Celtics) Over 2.5 Rebounds
Derrick White (Celtics) Over 2.5 Assists
Boston Celtics Moneyline

Legs 1-3: Jrue Holiday (Celtics) Over 6.5 Points & 1+ Made Three & Over 2.5 Rebounds
-Has hit all of these in 17/21 in games without Porzingis this season
-Has hit all of these in all 3 matchups against the Cavs this season
-Averaged 12.5 Points & 5.4 Rebouds this season
-Has made a 3 in 23 of his last 24 playoff games (including time with Bucks obviously

4th Leg: Derrick White (Celtics) Over 2.5 Assists
-34 of last 36
-Averaged 5.2 this season
-Hit in all 3 against Cavs this season with 7,3 & 4

5th Leg: Boston Celtics Moneyline
-12.5 Point Favorite
-At home
-Outside of the one game where the Heat couldn’t miss a shot from three, the Celtics have looked pretty unstoppable in the East.
-Throw in the fact that Jarrett Allen seems pretty unlikely to play, who is an essential part of this team. We like the Celtics to get it done

Happy Monday Café! The 1st round of NBA Playoffs is officially in the books. Definitely a struggle for us as we saw nearly ever loss we took end on the hook which was just painful. Our last play from Saturday didn’t end on the hook, but it was for sure still an annoying one. Mike Conley soars past his leg. But Rudy Gobert only gets 19 of the 23 PRA’s we needed. But what made it annoying was that if you combine how many he got in the first 7 minutes of the game, with how many he got in the final 4 minutes of the game, he actually got 17. Which means in the middle 37 minutes of game time…. he literally just got 2 for us (and yes, he was out there). When he’d already gotten 9 just 7 minutes into the game, we thought things were looking up, but Rudy had another idea. Didn’t help that Naz Reid came off the bench and did what we thought Rudy would, putting up 16 points in 23 minutes. We took yesterday off from sending anything, only the 3rd time we’ve done that since starting this whole thing. Was only one early NBA game in a series we’d probably watched the least, so just decided to wait it out until today. Let’s have a week.

Obviously taking it to the 2nd round games tonight. We’ve got one parlay for each game, along with a few extra props we considered. The main play that we’ll make a video for will be Game 2 of Nuggets/Timberwolves, then the extra parlay is for Game 1 of Knicks/Pacers. Can always be tough with Game 1’s to see how everyone matches up. Excited for what should hopefully be some good games tonight. If we can hit both of these, we’ll send $50 to two different random people in the discord. We’ll also possibly start up the May Ladder Contest later this week or possibly wait it out for next week, so stay tuned. Here we go ☕️

Parlay #1 (Timberwolves/Nuggets, Ladder): 4 Legs, +102

Jamal Murray (Nuggets) Over 16.5 Points
Mike Conley (Timberwolves) Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Karl Anthony Towns (Timberwolves) Over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists
Karl Anthony Towns (Timberwolves) 1+ Made Three

1st Leg: Jamal Murray Over 16.5 Points
-Hit in 10 Straight
-32 of last 35 Playoff Games
-Averaged 21.2 this season
-Hit in 9 of last 10 against Nuggets
-Hit this with exactly 17 in Game 1, and that was with him having not having such a great game

2nd Leg: Mike Conley Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
-Hit in 11 of last 13 Games
-Averaged 20.2 this season
-Has hit in 9 Straight against Nuggets (with 25,34,24,26 & 28 in the last 5)
-Had 28 in Game 1

3rd Leg: Karl Anthony Towns over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists
-14 of last 15 Games
-Hit in 20/21 Career Playoff Games
-Averaged 11.3 This Season
-Has hit in all 29 Career Matchups against Nuggets

4th Leg: Karl Anthony Towns 1+ Made Three
-Hit this in 63/67 Games This Season
-Hit in 16 of last 17 Against Nuggets
-Had 2 in Game 1
-Shot 41.6% from three this season
-Hopefully the Nuggets will be hyper focused on Anthony Edwards tonight after he dropped 43 on them in Game 1, which should leave KAT with a lot of opportunities

Extra Parlay (Knicks/Pacers Game 1): 3 Legs, -103

Pascal Siakam (Pacers) Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) Over 2.5 Rebounds
Donte DiVincenzo (Knicks) Over 11.5 Points

1st Leg: Pascal Siakam (Pacers) Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
-43/47 Since joining the Pacers
-Averaging 33.1 since joining the Pacers
-Has hit this in 11 Straight against the Knicks
-Hit in both this season against Knicks since joining the Pacers, with 31 & 28

2nd Leg: Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) Over 2.5 Rebounds
-25 of last 29
-Hit in all 6 playoff games against Bucks (with 4+ in all of them)
-Hit in all 3 matchups against the Knicks this season with 5,4 & 3
-A bit risky cause it takes a bit of luck for the boards to come his direction since it isn’t Tyrese’s main goal to rebound. But he’d gotten this in all regular season matchups against the Knicks, and it clearly seems like he’s stepping up the boards a bit in the post season. So we’re willing to roll the dice for the odds we’re getting it for

3rd Leg: Donte DiVinenzo (Knicks) Over 11.5 Points
-Pacers let up the 3rd most points to the shooting guard position this season
-Donte had 38,20 & 13 points in 3 matchups against the Pacers this season
-Coming off a bad series for him against the 76ers which wasn’t the best matchup for him. But had a good final game of the series, putting up 18 points and going 5-9 from three, and now he’s going in to play the Pacers, which is a team that lets up a lot of points to Shooting Guards. We’ve seen Donte have a lot of success against them this season, going absolutely off in a couple of the matchups, we like him to come out aggressive and get 12 against this Pacers defense

Extra Props We Considered:

Anthony Edwards 4+ Rebounds (-550)
-23 of last 27
-Hit in all 5 playoff games so far with 7,9,9,5 & 9
-Averaged 5.4 this season
-If you’ve been watching, you saw him hustle and move towards the basket for every single defensive rebound. Wouldn’t be surprised if he hits this throughout all of the playoffs.

Rudy Gobert Over 8.5 Rebounds (-600)
-30 of last 34
-Averaged 12.9
-Had 13 in Game 1
-Has had 13,15,12,12,15 & 15 in last 6 against Nuggets

Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets) Over 4.5 Rebounds (-490)
-10 of last 11 against Timberwolves (Still had 4 in one miss)
-Hit in all 5 games of playoff series against Twolves last season
-Averaged 7 this season
-Had 6 in Game 1